July Risk of Spill and Vic Allocation Forecasts for 2018/19

By | 02/07/2018

This morning, the Northern Victoria Resource Manager (NVRM) updated the risk of spill and allocation forecast for this year.

Risk of Spill

Risk of spill is the chance that the storages cannot supply spillable accounts. It usually improves throughout the year. Currently the risk of spill is:

  • Murray 59 %
  • Goulburn 12 %
  • Campaspe 24 %

10 % or less is the threshold needed for you to be able to access water in your spillable accounts. It looks like Goulburn spillable accounts will be accessible soon.

Allocation Forecasts

The NVRM publishes a series of forecasts on a number of different scenarios. Currently, Victorian systems are following the “dry” scenario. Here are the forecasts based on the “dry” scenario.

System 15 Aug 18 15 Oct 18 17 Dec 18 15 Feb 19
Murray 47 % 73 % 89 % 100 %
Goulburn and Loddon 40 % 58 % 72 % 79 %
Broken 0 % 25 % 41 % 48 %
Bullarook 0 % 15 % 34 % 36 %

Further commentary on the forecast is on the NVRM website.

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