Victorian Water Allocation Forecast 2018/19

By | 15/02/2018

This morning, the Northern Victoria Resource Manager released the first forecast for 2018/19 water allocations. The forecast is given as a set of scenarios which depend on how much rainfall we experience in the future. Under the “average” scenario, all high reliability water will receive 100 % allocation by mid October.

One thing to be cautious of is the risk of spill in the Goulburn is expected to be 30 %, Murray 60 % and Campaspe 50 %. This means water carried over in spillable accounts might be lost. If you have excess water this year, it’s best to carryover on low reliability entitlements, use it or trade it.

You can read the full forecast on their website here. Below are the tables outlining the forecast.

Murray

Scenario 2 July 2018 15 August 2018 15 October 2018 15 February 2019
Wet 81% 100% 100% 100%
Average 59% 76% 100% 100%
Dry 41% 50% 77% 100%
Extreme Dry 37% 38% 40% 45%

Goulburn

Scenario 2 July 2018  15 August 2018 15 October 2018 15 February 2019
Wet 77% 100% 100% 100%
Average 37% 71% 100% 100%
Dry 27% 39% 60% 84%
Extreme Dry 22% 28% 35% 38%

Broken

Scenario 2 July 2018  15 August 2018  15 October 2018 15 February 2019
Wet 40% 44% 100% 100%
Average 0% 44% 100% 100%
Dry 0% 0% 22% 100%
Extreme Dry 0% 0% 0% 0%

Bullarook

Scenario 2 July 2018  15 August 2018  15 October 2018 15 February 2019
Wet 33% 100% 100% 100%
Average 0% 100% 100% 100%
Dry 0% 0% 19% 34%
Extreme Dry 0% 0% 0% 0%

 

Which is the likely scenario?

All climate models used by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that the current La Niña is near its end. Most models forecast that the La Niña will end around Autumn. Link

That doesn’t meant we will go straight into El Niño and it’s unlikely to occur in winter, when the storages get most of their rain. I think the “average” scenario is the most likely.

 

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