24, February 2017

February 2017 Water Market Update

Weather Forecast

The next few months are forecast to have below average rainfall. That’s not to say it will be less wet than summer, but it will be less wet than at that time in other years.

Also, temperatures will be above average, except for Northwest Australia which will be below average.

One of the best resources for this is BoM’s interactive rainfall maps.

Rainfall map for Australia.

SA No Carryover for 2017/18

South Australian Murray Water Entitlements won’t be able to carryover for next year. So South Australians will have to sell their unused temporary water this year. Carryover is only ever granted when the risk of spill in the storages is less than 10 %.

SA Private Carryover article.

Goulburn CEWH Sale

Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder

The Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder is considering selling temporary water in the Goulburn Valley this quarter. If any trades occur, it will be late in the quarter, so that’s about now. We haven’t got further information on prices or volumes.

Source

Allocations

Since November, there has only been one change to water allocations. On 15 February, Victorian Murray Low Reliability Water Shares increased from 0 % to 5 % allocation.

View the list of allocations for Southern Murray-Darling Basin water here.

Victorian Forecast for 2017/18

Also on 15 February, Victoria released it’s first forecast for next year. For High Reliability Water Shares, the forecast is:

Murray

3 July

  • Average inflows 71 %
  • Dry inflows 52 %

16 October

  • Average inflows 100 %
  • Dry inflows 85 %

Goulburn

3 July

  • Average inflows 46 %
  • Dry inflows 37 %

16 October

  • Average inflows 100 %
  • Dry inflows 79 %

With average inflows, all Northern Victorian systems are expected to be at 100 % allocation on 16 October. For the full forecast, here is the NVRM article.

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